Runoff to Decide Which Republican Represents Brazos County in Texas House

The Brazos County representative in the Texas House of Representatives will be a Republican, but we will have to wait until December to find out which one. Bob Yancy and John Raney each received enough of the vote in District 14 to force a run-off, as none of the five candidates received a majority.

Accordingto the Bryan-College Station Eagle, Yancy received about 4,922 votes (36%) and Raney received 3,758 (28%). Democrat Judy LeUnes finished third receiving 3,060 votes (22%), Republican Rebecca Boenigk placed fourth with 1,505 votes and Libertarian Joshua Baker finished last with 266 votes.

  

I was not surprised that the election resulted in a run-off, however, I was surprised at which two candidates will be facing each other in the run-off. I expected either Yancy or Raney to finish with the highest vote total, and for LeUnes to finish with the second vote total.

There are a few reasons I think that this outcome took place. First, while there was an unusually high voter turnout (17%), there was probably lower than average Democratic voter turnout. I expected LeUnes to garner more than 22% of the vote. In 2008 Barack Obama received 35% of the vote in Brazos County, and even in the Republican wave of 2010 Chet Edwards receive 34% of the vote.

Second, LeUnes was probably hurt by a poor showing by Boenigk. During the campaign Boenigk was highly criticized by her fellow Republicans and participated in a significant amount of negative campaigning. After spending well over $100,000 on her campaign, each vote cost her nearly $100. This hurt LeUnes because the votes that Boenigk lost went to Yancy and Raney.

The run-off election is nearly impossible to predict because the voter turnout will likely be very low, and it is difficult to determine how the vote will shift. Will Boenigk supporters swing their vote to either Yancy or Raney, and will LeUnes supporters choose between two Republican candidates or stay home?

The most interesting part about this election is that unless either of the candidates is reelected in 2012, they will not actually ever cast a vote in the Texas Legislature. In Texas the legislature only meets for 140 days once every two years, since we don’t want to give them too much time to screw up the state. Although after the 82^nd Texas Legislature, I think we may have given them too much time.

What the run-off is about is whatever candidate that wins being able to position themselves as the incumbent. There’s always a chance that another Republican will challenge them in March during the primary, in which case voters would literally be voting for state representative three times within a year. There is a possibility that LeUnes will challenge whatever candidate wins during the general election in 2012. Either way, the results from yesterday’s election appear to be just the first chapter in this saga.