Why the Tea Party Has an Expiration Date

While the Republican Party is probably only a few weeks away from wondering out of the wilderness, the Tea Party has already been affecting Republican electoral politics. However, since the primaries ended last week, the Tea Party may have already reached its peak. Throughout the primary season the Tea Party backed candidates have been competing in Republican primaries, and in a few of them those candidates have won (in some cases defeating incumbents or establishment candidates). However, although they do not know it yet, the tea has already expired.

There will be a few Tea Party backed candidates that may have success in the general election; however, it is much more likely that the gains by the Republican Party in the Senate and in the House will be blunted by the effect of unelectable general election candidates. Even so, it is likely that a Republican will be Speaker of the House (the speculation is that it will be Minority Leader John Boehner), and the Senate Republicans will easily be able to filibuster Democratic legislation in the Senate. However, with a Democratic President that has the power of the veto pen, a Democratic majority in the Senate, and in all probability a slim Republican majority in the House it is unlikely that the Republicans will be able to pass any significant legislation.

The problem with zealots and converts is that when you put that much passion into something, it is easy to burn out. The Tea Party will have spent two years opposing President Obama and Congressional Democrats, and the Republicans spent those two years courting Tea Party support to set up this November’s electoral success. Over the next two years not much will probably get done in Washington. With bipartisan seemingly a dirty word, it is unlikely that any substantive compromise will be reached on significant legislation. The economy may recover over the next two years, but in all likelihood is will be agonizingly slow and unemployment will increase initially as more people reenter the workforce.

The Republican presidential primary in 2012 is the beginning of the end for the Tea Party’s power within the party. It is difficult to determine who will have the best chance to win the nomination two years from now, and I hesitate to rehash the same list of front runners that everyone else seems to think will be involved. In all likelihood the Republican nominee for president in 2012 will not be on the list of names that the pundits and commentators have been talking about. That being said, I have my own theory.

The only candidates that will compete in the Republican presidential primary in 2012 are those that are willing to take a hard line on most issues. With the 2008 election in their review mirrors the common wisdom among the Republican base will be that the reason Republicans lost was because Senator John McCain was too moderate. Some of the familiar names will compete and may even win early primaries; the Iowa primary will probably be won by one of the more recognizable names. However, the Republican primary will belong to one person: Texas Governor Rick Perry. While Perry’s reelection to the Texas Governor’s mansion is not completely certain, it is going to be difficult for Democratic challenger Bill White to win in such a red state during such a red year. Perry is the perfect match for the anxiety within the Republican Party and the firebrand of the Tea Party. In New Hampshire Perry’s secessionist comments might actually play well, and in South Carolina his connection to the South will benefit him. If he comes into Texas with momentum he could pull ahead of the other candidates, and be standing at the podium in Tampa, Florida as the Republican nominee for President in 2012. But that’s just one theory.

The point is that in 2012 the Republican Party is going to nominated someone that is by all measures not a moderate. They will nominate someone who might say something like “extremism in the defense of liberty is no vice.” The conservative base of the Republican Party and the Tea Party will love whomever this candidate happens to be. But, the rest of America will recoil. The Republican party will not learn anything from history, perhaps because conservatives seems to constantly rewrite it, and they will repeat the election of 1964. But, this will actually be a good thing for the Republican Party. Moderates will return to the fold, and the Tea Party’s power will expire. The Republican Party will restore its sanity (apologizes to Jon Stewart), but it will have to lose its collective mind to find it.