Local News: Recession Continues in Bryan-College Station

Sphere: Related Content B-CS Area Still in Recession
By Maggie Kiely

From the Bryan-College Station Eagle

The recession is alive and kicking in the Brazos Valley, according to the monthly economic index.

The Bryan-College Station index decreased during each month of 2009 and dropped again in January, according to Karr Ingham, an Amarillo-based economist who compiles the monthly economic report for Commerce National Bank and The Eagle.

"The B-CS general economy has been in decline since October 2008 in what can only be called a significant local recession, characterized by declines in economic activity spread across most sectors of the B-CS economy," Ingham said.

The index slid from 115.2 in December to 114.8 in January. The index was launched in January 2000 with a baseline measure of 100. It peaked in December 2008, at 127.4.

Glen Davis, regional president of Commerce National Bank, said January numbers indicate "the recession is still among us."

"I'm still anticipating a late 2010 recovery," he said. "Consumer spending needs to rise."

January sales tax receipts -- which are derived from November sales -- were down 12 percent compared to January 2009, according to the report.

The decline represents lower-than-usual holiday spending, Davis said.

Employment statistics will bear watching in the months ahead, according to Ingham.

"The employment data for January is estimated this month based on the current benchmarks and trends," he said, "which would suggest a year-over-year decline of about 3.6 percent in January."

Ingham said the unemployment rate increased to 6.5 percent, but noted that unemployment generally takes a seasonal leap in January as temporary holiday employees are let go.

"The revised employment data will be based on more complete employer records, and will result in a new benchmark going forward through 2010," he added.

There were a couple signs of improvement, Davis noted. Automobile sales were up 8.2 percent in January compared to January 2009. And although the value of all construction was down 15.6 percent in January 2010 compared to January 2009, single-housing permits rose 86.3 percent and the number of home sales increased 2.3 percent, according to the report.

"The 2009 picture will be more complete next month, with the employment data revisions and the final figures on the retail sector for the year," Ingham said. "That benchmark data will provide the foundation for a final review of 2009 and a look ahead to 2010."

Published on Sunday, February 28, 2010