Health Care Reform Support By the Numbers

It is clear that the debate surrounding health care reform is going to continue long past this week’s possible vote, and the debate is going to have a significant impact on the midterm elections this November. If health care reform is passed then Democrats who voted for it will have something tangible to campaign on, and the Republicans have already begun to make plans on campaigning on repealing health care reform. The Republicans did the same thing after the New Deal, but that is a subject for another blog. Another thing that has been made clear is that special interests groups are going to be heavily campaigning against health care reform, and because of a recent Supreme Court decision corporations are also going to be able to directly influence the public debate.

The US Chamber of Commerce is targeting Democrats in Congress with a recent poll that it commissioned in ten Congressional districts around the country, including Texas Congressional District 17. The respondents where asked a series of questions beginning with what they thought health care reform priorities should be: improving the quality of health care, lowering the costs of health care, or covering more of the uninsured. Then they where asked to think about the “overall health care reform plan being discussed in Congress” and whether or not they would say they “generally support or oppose that reform plan.” The poll then asked respondents to “agree or disagree with each of the following statements about health care,” and provides a series of negative statements about health care reform.

The statements that respondents where asked to agree or disagree with included “reforms being discussed will raise my health care costs,” “reforms being discussed will increase the deficit,” “reforms being discussed will cause my taxes to go up,” “reforms being discussed will expand government control over health care,” “new taxes and fees charged to health care companies will get passed on and will mean higher health care costs for me.” So, instead of asking respondents about what they think about the actual proposals in the health care reform legislation, respondents are asked what they think about a list that looks as though it could have come from Republican talking points.

The reforms in the health care legislation will not raise health care costs, and are in fact designed to lower the cost of health care overall. The legislation has been determined by the Congressional Budget Office to actually lower the deficit, and while some taxes will need to be increased that vast majority of Americans will not see their taxes increased. Also, there will not be higher health care cost for the majority of Americans, because of increased competition that is designed to lower health care cost overall. The idea that health care reform constitutes an expansion of government control over health care is simply the way in which the Republican Party and special interests groups have been able to paint reform with a broad brush to influence a public that has become mistrustful of government after eight years of Republican incompetence.

How did voters in Congressional District 17 respond to the survey? When respondents in District 17 where asked to think about the “overall health care reform plan being discussed in Congress, would you say you generally support or oppose that reform plan,” 60% said that they opposed the plan while 30% said they support the plan and 10% did not know. District 17 had the highest percentage of those surveyed who where against the plan, but only 4.4% higher than the average of the other ten districts. In general this seems to be higher than the average national poll, however, the recent Gallup poll reported that 48% of respondents where against the current health care legislation.

When asked if the current legislation would increase health care cost, 65% of constituents in Congressional District 17 said that they believed it would, which is the highest among the ten congressional districts. Even more of the same respondents believed that health care reform would increase the deficit, once again the highest among the districts with 75% agreeing. The same amount believe that their taxes would increase and 76% believe that it is increasing government control over health care, both of which are the highest among the districts. In fact only one question was not agreed with by the constituents of Congressional District 17 more than any other district; residents of this district and the Pennsylvania 4th and the Nevada 3rd all agreed 69% of the time that higher health care cost will get passed on to them.

However, what the real purpose of publishing this poll is to convince Democrats in Congress that if they oppose the health care legislation, even if they supported it before, that their constituents would be more likely to reelect them:

“Voters in each district would be more likely to support their representative if he or she votes against health care reform in the spring. Regardless of whether their representative in the House voted for or against the House bill last November, these voters prefer that their representative oppose the current plan.”

What the poll is trying to highlight is that out of the respondents from congressional districts whose representative voted for health reform an average of 31% would continue to support them if they voted for health care reform again and an average of 43% would switch to opposition if they voted for health care reform again. What does that mean for Congressman Chet Edwards is Congressional District 17? Not much. Congressman Edwards voted against health care reform in the fall and already announced that he will not be supporting the current legislation. Even if he did support this current legislation only 18% would switch to supporting him (the lowest out of any of the congressional districts), while 50% would maintain their oppositions and 23% of which for it would make no difference. But why are these numbers worthless? Because the poll never ask if the respondents support their representative in the first place, and there is not a breakdown by party lines. The only thing that this poll might show of significance is that on average 72% of the 400 people surveyed in Texas Congressional District 17 are misinformed about the current health care reforms.

In the press released by the Chamber of Commerce, Bruce Josten, the executive vice president of Government Affairs at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, was quoted as saying, “There should be absolutely no question in anyone’s mind how Americans view this health care bill. This legislation is among the most unpopular proposals in recent memory and Members of Congress would be well advised to listen to their constituents’ concerns.” The public opinion would not perhaps have been in part shaped by advertising and lawmakers may been influenced by perhaps special interests groups such as the Chamber of Commerce?

According to a report by the National Journal the Chamber of Commerce far outspent any other group lobbying in 2009, spending $123.3 million lobbying activities that year compared to $62.3 million in 2008. The Chamber of Commerce spent nearly five times more on lobbying than even PhRMA, and more than PhRMA, AARP, the AMA, the Business Roundtable, the American Hospital Association, Blue Cross and Blue Shield Association, and America's Health Insurance Plans combined. The numbers look different when you realize the questions are loaded, and the money behind the questions is invested not in ensuring quality health care for Americans but in corporate interests.