Bryan-College Station Election Turnout: Minority Rule?

In May the citizens of College Station and Bryan will vote in municipal elections and citizens from each city will determine who will represent them on their respective city councils. This year both cities will also be voting for mayor, and while College Station residents will have the chance to reelect their current mayor residents of Bryan will have a new mayor after the election. So how many people decide who will be representing the residents of the two cities?

An estimated 72,000 people live in Bryan and in 2008 there where about 42,000 registered voters; an estimated 68,000 people live in College Station and in 2009 there where about 48,000 registered voters. There are about 90,000 registered voters in Brazos County, and an average of 43,828 residents cast ballots in the general elections over the last five election cycles. During a general election about 49% of registered voters or about 31% of all residents participate in the democratic process. However, during municipal elections the number of people who participate in the democratic process is much less.

Over the last five years an average of 5,399 residents, in Bryan and College Station combined, voted in municipal elections. College Station has consistently had higher voter turnout than Bryan, however, this is mainly due to the fact that Bryan has single member districts and all residents of College Station vote for every councilmember. In the last five municipal elections an average of 3,852 College Station residents have voted and an average of 1,182 Bryan residents have voted. The average voter turnout in College Station for municipal elections is about 8%, and the average voter turnout in Bryan is about 3%. About 6% of registered voters in both cities participate in the democratic process on the local level. When you look at the entire picture, roughly 4% of the people are speaking for the citizens of Bryan-College Station.

What is voter turnout going to look like this year? The highest voter turnouts are during years in which both cities are electing mayors, although the highest turnout for both cities in the last five years was in 2008 municipal elections when over 5,400 College Station residents voted. However, the highest combined turnout in the last five years was during the 2007 municipal elections when 7,000 residents voted in both cities. This year, in College Station, there are only two contested city council elections, Mayor and Place 2, and the last two elections with only two contested city council elections the turnout was 3,161 in 2006 and 3,054 in 2004. But there was not an election for mayor during either one of those elections so this year I would expect the voter turnout to be around 3,500.

Voter turnout in the Bryan municipal elections may be harder to predict. There are four contested city council positions, including mayor, for which Bryan residents will be casting their ballots. There are also two contested Bryan Independent School District school board trustee positions. The last election in which Bryan residents chose a mayor, in 2007, the voter turnout was as high as it has been in the last five years, with 3,335 residents casting their ballots. What will the turnout about be like in the single member districts? Voter turnout is hard to predict in SMD 1 since the last time a councilmember was elected representing that district they where unopposed. The average voter turnout in SMD 2 over the last two election cycles in which there was a councilmember up for election there was about 260 people. However, the last two election cycles in which there was a councilmember up for election in SMD 3 the average voter turnout was 736. Despite the low voter turnout in SMD 1 and 2 in the past, both those districts have incumbent candidates facing challengers, and this could help drive up voter turnout. The turnout for the Bryan municipal elections may be between 3,500 and 4,000 voters.

It is unfortunate that so few people participate in the local municipal elections, so much so that in a sense residents of Bryan and College Station are under a form of minority rule.