Looking at the Poll Numbers for Texas Governor

According to the most recent Blum & Weprin poll, Perry leads the Republican candidates with 45% while Hutchinson is second with 29% and Medina appears to have lost her momentum with 17%. Voters who are supporting Perry are the most certain about their choice with 66% qualifying themselves as “very certain.” However, there is not much of a gap when it comes to certainty, with 56% of Hutchinson voters and 55% of Medina voters considering the choices to be “very certain.”

If you just look at the numbers then it becomes apparent White has a significant opportunity to seriously compete in November. Neither Perry nor Hutchinson holds a significant lead over White. In hypothetical match ups Perry leads White 43%-37% and Hutchinson leads White 42%-34%, and 13%-15% undecided. While Perry and Hutchinson have similar job approval ratings, 46% and 48%, Perry has a much higher disapproval rating at 38% compared to 27%. Only 23% have a favorable opinion of White, but 65% do not know enough about him. So who would White stand the best chance against in November? When asked if there should be term limits for governor 75% said that there should, which means that White will have a built in advantage against Perry.

The Daily Kos/Research 2000 Texas Poll from February 10th paints a slightly different picture. Perry leads the Republican candidates with 42% while Hutchinson is again second with 30% and Medina in third with 17%. While those numbers are about the same, the favorable numbers are different. Both the Governor and the Senator’s disapproval ratings are significantly higher, with Perry’s disapproval rating is 45% while Hutchinson’s disapproval rating is 37%.While White has a higher favorable rating of 49% is unfavorable rating is much higher at 33%. Another noticeable difference in these polls is that in the hypothetical matchups, in which Perry only leads White 46%-42% and Hutchinson leads White 47%-41%.

The Public Policy Polling numbers from February 10th are much closer to the Blum & Weprin poll than the Daily Kos/Research 2000 poll. In the hypothetical matchup Perry leads White 48%-42, and Hutchinson leads White 45%-38%. According to the Texas Tribune/University of Texas poll from February 7th Perry leads White 44%-35% and Hutchinson leads White 43%-34%. According to the Rasmussen Reports poll from February 1st Perry leads White 48%-39% and Hutchinson leads White 49%-36%.

So what is the take away from these numbers? There are trends that are beginning to emerge, and by the time the primary election is over I think the poll numbers are going to be much closer than anyone could have imagined.