The
Brazos County representative in the Texas House of Representatives will be a
Republican, but we will have to wait until December to find out which one. Bob
Yancy and John Raney each received enough of the vote in District 14 to force a
run-off, as none of the five candidates received a majority.
Accordingto the Bryan-College Station Eagle, Yancy received about 4,922 votes (36%) and
Raney received 3,758 (28%). Democrat Judy LeUnes finished third receiving 3,060
votes (22%), Republican Rebecca Boenigk placed fourth with 1,505 votes and
Libertarian Joshua Baker finished last with 266 votes.
I
was not surprised that the election resulted in a run-off, however, I was
surprised at which two candidates will be facing each other in the run-off. I
expected either Yancy or Raney to finish with the highest vote total, and for
LeUnes to finish with the second vote total.
There
are a few reasons I think that this outcome took place. First, while there was
an unusually high voter turnout (17%), there was probably lower than average
Democratic voter turnout. I expected LeUnes to garner more than 22% of the
vote. In 2008 Barack Obama received 35% of the vote in Brazos County, and even
in the Republican wave of 2010 Chet Edwards receive 34% of the vote.
Second,
LeUnes was probably hurt by a poor showing by Boenigk. During the campaign
Boenigk was highly criticized by her fellow Republicans and participated in a
significant amount of negative campaigning. After spending well over $100,000
on her campaign, each vote cost her nearly $100. This hurt LeUnes because the
votes that Boenigk lost went to Yancy and Raney.
The
run-off election is nearly impossible to predict because the voter turnout will
likely be very low, and it is difficult to determine how the vote will shift.
Will Boenigk supporters swing their vote to either Yancy or Raney, and will
LeUnes supporters choose between two Republican candidates or stay home?
The
most interesting part about this election is that unless either of the
candidates is reelected in 2012, they will not actually ever cast a vote in the
Texas Legislature. In Texas the legislature only meets for 140 days once every
two years, since we don’t want to give them too much time to screw up the
state. Although after the 82nd Texas Legislature, I think we may
have given them too much time.
What
the run-off is about is whatever candidate that wins being able to position themselves
as the incumbent. There’s always a chance that another Republican will
challenge them in March during the primary, in which case voters would literally
be voting for state representative three times within a year. There is a possibility
that LeUnes will challenge whatever candidate wins during the general election
in 2012. Either way, the results from yesterday’s election appear to be just
the first chapter in this saga.
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